# Trend Confidence — Cultural Case Model

Confidence isn't "how many articles." It's "how deep is the cultural case."

## The 6 Layers

| Layer | Icon | What counts | Example |
|-------|------|------------|---------|
| **Publication** | 📰 | Design press covering it | It's Nice That, Brand New, Dezeen |
| **Institutional** | 🏛️ | Governments, museums, industry bodies | Federal Design Mandate, V&A acquisitions |
| **Brand** | 🏢 | Companies spending real money on it | Stripe's aesthetic, Nothing pink phone |
| **Award** | 🏆 | Juries validating it | D&AD Gold, Cannes shortlist |
| **CE Internal** | 🔄 | Our own documented observations | Pattern files, zeitgeist docs, past signals |
| **Persistence** | ⏱️ | Tracked over time, keeps showing up | Signal first seen Feb 21, still active Mar 3 |

## Scoring

- **4+ layers = 🟢 Strong** — proven cultural shift with institutional, commercial, and critical backing
- **2-3 layers = 🟡 Emerging** — building momentum, worth watching and acting on
- **1 layer = 🔴 Weak** — single observation, needs validation

## Writing the Confidence Reason

Don't just say "High confidence." Build the case in 2-3 sentences:

**Good:** "Strong cultural case: Federal Design Mandate makes this institutional policy (🏛️). TrumpRx.gov + RealFood.gov are live implementations (🏢). It's Nice That + Dezeen covered the shift (📰). CE documented this as a pattern on Feb 21 (🔄). 4 layers."

**Bad:** "High confidence based on multiple sources."

## Where to Find Evidence

### CE's Own Intelligence (check first!)
- `/strategic-intelligence/patterns/` — documented patterns
- `/strategic-intelligence/zeitgeist/` — deep dives
- `/strategic-intelligence/signals/` — daily scan archives
- Discord channels — search for past discussions

### External
- Web search for additional press, brand examples, award data
- Check award databases during seasons (D&AD May, Cannes June, Webby April)
- Check government/institutional sites for policy evidence

## Rule
The evidence chain IS the product. "3 independent studios doing brutalist typography" with links and quotes beats "High confidence" with nothing backing it up.